- Mills taking maintenance shutdown
- Imports tend to edge lower w-o-w
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices across India remained stable w-o-w at INR 47,400-49,500/tonne (t). Conversely, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices witnessed mixed trends w-o-w, settling at INR 53,000-55,700/t ($617-671/t) across markets.
BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL), however, remained stable w-o-w at INR 48,500/t ($549/t) on 15 February 2025. However, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices surged by INR 1,100/t w-o-w to INR 54,800/t ($628/t). These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
Market updates
Trade segment sees stable prices with limited demand:The market is experiencing weak demand, and buyers are not accepting the price increases. Rumors about anti-dumping duties had little impact, as they were ultimately proven false. With a few mills taking maintenance shutdowns its expected to impact supply of material.
“The trade market is extremely slow – I’ve never seen a last quarter this sluggish. On top of that, inventories are sufficient, and despite pressure from various stakeholders, some distributors are trying to raise prices even though the last increase wasn’t accepted. As a result, the market is in a highly uncertain state, and it’s unclear how long this situation will continue,” said a market participant.
Import trends: Imports of bulk HRCs and plates stood at 195,529 t till 10 February, as per vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. It is expected that an additional 1,22,115 t will be imported by the month-end.
Export trends: BigMint’s India hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE1006) export index for the Middle East and Vietnam remained stable w-o-w. However, exports to Europe continued to struggle due to ongoing anti-dumping investigations.
Additionally, competitive Chinese pricing after the Lunar New Year and volatility in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) HRC futures kept trading activity sluggish for Indian mills in the Middle East.
The anti-dumping investigations have slowed Indian HRC exports to Europe, with S275 (3 mm thickness) quoted at $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB east coast India). A source noted, “Market activity may improve after the anti-dumping investigation results, expected in mid-March.”
Outlook
The trade market is particularly slow, with ample inventory and continued, though unsuccessful, attempts to raise prices. The market is likely to stay cautious, with stable to slightly soft pricing in the near term, depending on demand recovery and global trade developments.
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