BigMint’s India hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE1006) export index (for the Middle East and Vietnam) remained stable w-o-w amid recent export deals from India to the Middle East (ME). Current prices are at $495/t FOB main port India. Vietnamese buyers are prioritising domestic HRC despite hike in mill prices. The European market is facing sluggish conditions due to ongoing anti-dumping probes.
1.ME’s imported HRC offers remain stable: Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC) export offers to the UAE held steady at $515/t CFR this week, supported by recent deals. An Indian steel major booked around 25,000 tonnes (t) of HRCs at similar price levels, for March shipment. Another booking of around 10,000 t was heard concluded with tube-makers at similar prices and shipment terms.
Moreover, China’s HRC export offers to the Middle East remained stable for the week, with offers hovering around $500-515/t CFR. Notably, HRC futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) declined by RMB 53/t ($7/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,342/t ($462/t) from RMB 3,395/t ($469/t) a week ago. Moreover, d-o-d, prices dropped by RMB 19/t ($3/t) compared to RMB 3,361/t ($464/t) yesterday.
2.China’s HRC offers to Vietnam remain flat: Chinese HRC (SAE1006) export offers to Vietnam remained flat w-o-w; indicative offers stood at $485-$490/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC).
Vietnamese steel giant Formosa Ha Tinh (FHS) has increased its HRC prices by approximately $25-29/t m-o-m for April sales. Following this adjustment, FHS’s HRC prices (SAE1006, skin-passed) ranged at $523-535/t CIF Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) depending on the quantity booked, as compared to $500/t CIF HCMC a month ago.
3. Indian mills not actively offering to EU: Indian steel producers are taking a cautious approach, refraining from actively offering HRCs in the EU market, as participants are awaiting the results of anti-dumping investigations.
The European steel industry is facing numerous challenges, including high energy costs, overcapacity, and declining demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, HRC steel prices have stabilised, as market participants eagerly anticipate the EU’s safeguard review, while import restrictions and trade uncertainties have diminished the appeal of imported steel.
Outlook
While Chinese offers remain competitive, the stability of Middle East demand will be crucial for Indian exports even as the Vietnamese market will likely see continued price adjustments based on domestic mill strategies. The outcome of the EU safeguard review and anti-dumping probes will heavily influence European market dynamics, impacting potential Indian export opportunities.
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