- Transport networks, port operations to be hit
- Major coal mines may not be directly affected
Mysteel Global: Tropical Cyclone Alfred, currently bearing down on the eastern Australian coast and shaping up to possibly be one of the most devastating of its kind in the recent half-century, is projected to affect Australia’s coal exports, sources noted.
Cyclone Alfred is predicted to make landfall in southwestern Queensland, Australia, on 7 March, impacting areas from Brisbane to the Gold Coast, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Damaging and destructive wind gusts, storms, and heavy rainfall are expected to develop later on 6 March, impacting parts of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales.
Brisbane hosts a coal export terminal known as the Queensland Bulk Handling (QBH) Coal Export Terminal, located at the Port of Brisbane. This facility is owned and operated by Queensland Bulk Handling, a subsidiary of New Hope Corporation, and has a capacity of 12 million tonnes (mnt)/year, the New Hope website data showed.
Brisbane Port has announced the suspension of services to all new arriving vessels and plans to completely shut down during 6-7 March, according to sources, although Mysteel Global could not confirm the information immediately. Brisbane Port exported 4.125 mnt of coal in 2024, according to data from the Port of Brisbane Pty Ltd. Latest data show that coal shipments from the port touched 398,000 t last December, up by a huge 243,000 t (156.2%) y-o-y.
Among the Queensland coal mines bracing for Alfred’s arrival is New Hope’s opencast New Acland mine directly west of Brisbane on the Darling Downs, producing thermal coal at an approved capacity of 5 mnt/y, and which sits within the cyclone’s potential impact zone, according to sources.
However, the BoM forecasts that Cyclone Alfred will be on a westward trajectory after the landfall, while Queensland’s coal mining operations are predominantly situated in the Bowen Basin, located in Central Queensland, which is north of the cyclone’s expected path. Given this geographical separation, it is unlikely that major coal mines will be directly affected, sources noted.
However, cyclones can cause heavy rainfall and strong winds over extensive areas, potentially disrupting transportation networks and port operations, sources warned. Such disruptions could indirectly impact coal exports, even if the mines themselves remain unaffected.
Cyclone Alfred, which formed in the Coral Sea on 23 February, initially moved south-southeast, remaining well offshore from the Queensland coast. Forecasts suggested it could strengthen to a Category 3 storm (in a five-category classification in Australia) as it nears the southern Queensland coast on Thursday night or Friday morning.
In 2017, Tropical Cyclone Debbie caused Queensland’s coal exports to halt for nearly a month, triggering a 40% surge in Asia-Pacific thermal coal prices, sources revealed. Debbie reached Category 4 strength, bringing with it extremely powerful winds, torrential rains, and widespread flooding.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.
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